Early in 2006, I predicted privately to friends and family that AAPL shares would close north of 90 at the end of 2006. In December 2006 when it was clear that my Wild Guess was correct, I made another Wild Guess, this time publicly:

I'll make a wild prediction here: AAPL will be at 160 by the end of 2007. Ninety dollars a share seemed impossible less than a year ago, and yet the price today is 91.66, so it's not that crazy an idea. Why so high if only 20% growth? Because by the end of 2007 Apple will no longer be viewed as a niche player. Once their full potential is appreciated, there will be a huge rush to get on board the stock. Not a bad prize to win.

Earlier than I thought, AAPL has crossed 160. Today it closed at 167.91. Here is my currently absurd-sounding guess, made in August 2007:

I'll make another wild prediction, now we have the iPhone to play with: $225 by the end of 2008. Again that sounds like a lot, but I figure on continuing large gross margins and 20% growth, plus an extra 20% "look out here they come" factor. That will make AAPL seven tenths the size of MSFT, assuming MSFT stays static. And how could that assumption possibly be wrong?

It will be interesting to see how I do. Of course Microsoft is playing a huge part in Apple's current success. The market for computers, phones, PDAs, music players, and stores that actually work for their customers is huge, and only Apple is filling the demand.

Tags: Apple, Wild Guesses, Microsoft