P2P
I, Cringely: Appeerances Can be Deceiving
2007-02-20
On I, Cringely Robert Cringely esposes his theory that the Apple TV box is (going to be) part of a centrally-controlled P2P network. This could actually happen, I think. But there is more.
The idea is that instead of creating a VOD (video on demand) system that suffers from all the delays of downloading after you have decided to watch, a problem shared by every delivery system out there, including DVDs by mail from Netflix, the box which is always plugged in and turned on will be downloading movies for you 24 hours a day. Only when there is a sufficiently large chunk available on your Apple TV will the system offer it to you for watching. The rest of the movie will come from other Apple TV boxes all over the world, seeded by Apple and/or Google servers.
This means that Apple can achieve very rapid distribution of movies without setting up millions of servers. This reduces costs of course, but also makes Apple the fastest network mass distribution system there is. That in itself makes for some interesting possibilities. Why stop at movies? Shorter content, often at lower resolution is much easier to handle and can include a much wider selection. Like weather, local news, and traffic conditions. And widgets of course. There is no reason that the Apple TV cannot display widgets exactly the same as the iPhone and the Mac can.
The other thing it does is to allow Apple to offer instant gratification and with it receive instant income. Think about it. Your Apple TV says "Last week you watched Lord Of The Rings part one on DVD. I have part two ready for you to watch right now. Just pay me to watch it". Why go to Blockbuster or wait for Netflix? VOAW: Video On A Whim.
The article also asks this question:
Bob misses the obvious. They are not designed to all stack together, so much as to each stack with another piece that Apple has not yet released. What is that piece? My pet theory is that it is a home server. That will allow people to maintain very large collections of movies for P2P distribution and so earn credits toward their own movie downloads. That's right. Apple will give you credit for providing P2P content to other people. The more you have and the bigger bandwidth you have, the more you can earn. A big, easy to use home server is also perfect for home video collections, photos (many people have tens of thousands of 10M photos these days), and backing up to.
Another theory I have is that it will be a WiMAX box: fixed, high speed, wireless networking -- real broadband in fact -- that will not be controlled by either the cable or the phone companies. This will introduce real competition into the marketplace and rates of payment will fall like crazy as rates of data transfer climb like crazy. This is why you won't care about the bandwidth cost or the amount of data your Apple TV is sending and receiving.
The idea is that instead of creating a VOD (video on demand) system that suffers from all the delays of downloading after you have decided to watch, a problem shared by every delivery system out there, including DVDs by mail from Netflix, the box which is always plugged in and turned on will be downloading movies for you 24 hours a day. Only when there is a sufficiently large chunk available on your Apple TV will the system offer it to you for watching. The rest of the movie will come from other Apple TV boxes all over the world, seeded by Apple and/or Google servers.
This means that Apple can achieve very rapid distribution of movies without setting up millions of servers. This reduces costs of course, but also makes Apple the fastest network mass distribution system there is. That in itself makes for some interesting possibilities. Why stop at movies? Shorter content, often at lower resolution is much easier to handle and can include a much wider selection. Like weather, local news, and traffic conditions. And widgets of course. There is no reason that the Apple TV cannot display widgets exactly the same as the iPhone and the Mac can.
The other thing it does is to allow Apple to offer instant gratification and with it receive instant income. Think about it. Your Apple TV says "Last week you watched Lord Of The Rings part one on DVD. I have part two ready for you to watch right now. Just pay me to watch it". Why go to Blockbuster or wait for Netflix? VOAW: Video On A Whim.
The article also asks this question:
I'll tell you my theory about the Apple TV in a moment, but first I want to riff a bit on the other components in the new ministack -- the Mac Mini and the new AirPort Extreme Base Station. All three components have the same form factor, very similar cases, and they stack beautifully one atop the other. But why? Under what circumstance would you even want to stack all three together? It makes no sense to me.
Bob misses the obvious. They are not designed to all stack together, so much as to each stack with another piece that Apple has not yet released. What is that piece? My pet theory is that it is a home server. That will allow people to maintain very large collections of movies for P2P distribution and so earn credits toward their own movie downloads. That's right. Apple will give you credit for providing P2P content to other people. The more you have and the bigger bandwidth you have, the more you can earn. A big, easy to use home server is also perfect for home video collections, photos (many people have tens of thousands of 10M photos these days), and backing up to.
Another theory I have is that it will be a WiMAX box: fixed, high speed, wireless networking -- real broadband in fact -- that will not be controlled by either the cable or the phone companies. This will introduce real competition into the marketplace and rates of payment will fall like crazy as rates of data transfer climb like crazy. This is why you won't care about the bandwidth cost or the amount of data your Apple TV is sending and receiving.
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